When the predictions don’t come true, they are quickly forgotten and the prognosticators seldom held to task.
It will be interesting to see who the Reds opening day starter is.

37 overall) to the Yankees to complete the deal. The official trade brought Sonny Gray and left-handed pitching prospect Reiver Sanmartin to Cincinnati. All of this FV worth seems like a waste of analysis. From a value standpoint, the Cincinnati Reds sent out about $35.5M in surplus value to acquire Sonny Gray and Reiver Sanmartin. Not sure what you want Fangraphs to do. It is certainly POSSIBLE again in 2019. If they have not, they would likely be non-tendered at some point and replaced. His strikeout rate was an abysmal 15.7%. It's worth noting that, with the Reds, Gray will be reunited with pitching coach Derek Johnson, whom he flourished under as an amateur at Vanderbilt University. For Reiver Sanmartin, the splits are pretty big. It could be a great player or it could be a Nick Howard. The Reds sent Shed Long and their competitive balance pick in the 2019 MLB Draft (likely No. Especially back several years where people were drafted 35 but paid 1st round money. To be worth that contract, Gray needs to be worth, roughly 4 WAR based on the current prices being paid per WAR. He did nothing in the AFL to boost his value. Just need to cross t’s, dot i’s (ie medicals, 40-man considerations, etc. MLB.com ranked Long as the seventh-best Reds prospect, noting that the 5-foot-8 left-handed hitter has a chance to be an asset with the bat. Too bad, I guess the Reds are still under penalty from the last all glove-no bat Cuban SS they signed that is still toiling away in the low, low minors.

The numbers are outstanding. Gray is scheduled to start tonight’s game against the Brewers.

But in 2018 his ERA was higher than it should have been. And when the postseason arrived, Gray was left off the team’s roster for both rounds. "We have a chance to go into this season with the best rotation we've had in five years," Reds general manager Nick Krall said.

In both cases, Sanmartin doesn’t walk anyone.

The Fangraphs gauge is a joke. Not to be repetitive, but Siri is #118 with a value of $13M … personally, I think that’s a lot closer to a consensus value on Long. Mistakes land ten rows deep. Long has same prospect value (in $ terms) as Greene? Highly doubt it. That is about what Siani, Gray and Richardson signed for last summer. This was a season, that from a pitch usage standpoint, was not like the rest of his career. Gray was taken off the 40 man roster in the trade. Sep 11, 2018; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Sonny Gray (55) pitches in the first inning against Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Slightly off topic, but I suspect that the Reds will now try to extend Wood before his arbitration hearing. He was, in nearly every way, a very different pitcher at home versus the road. Gray’s got a rare combination of high ground ball rates and the ability to miss bats. The Reds send Shed Long, who was immediately traded to Seattle, and a competitive balance draft pick to the Yankees. Turns out the experts were way wrong. Last season Sonny Gray was worth 1.2 WAR (averaged). Let’s talk a bit about Reiver Sanmartin, the left-handed pitching prospect that came over in the trade from the Yankees. 3. If Long is really a 45 FV or even a 40 FV player then that makes this trade easier to swallow. Among 50 FV players, most will not reach the point in their careers that their evaluation is based upon. Poor teams like Miami and Tampa and Oakland would sell their prospects for cash if they had that kind of return. The surplus value he would provide would be what value he provides beyond what he’s being paid. Sanmartin should be good LHP in minors for Reds next two years. Not sure else how to put it.
You can see at the top of the 50 tier, Hunter Greene (#46) is valued at $31 M but the last 50 grade player (#131) is valued at $9 M. So I don’t think Doug is using this information correctly or within the context the Fangraphs suggested, where the numbers should be weighted according to top 131 ranking. The Reds have placed right-hander Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list with a right mid-back strain, the team announced. And obviously if you want to get an average of a population you are going to need to look at it from a macro level. Fangraphs give them a value of 6, 3 and 3 (on average $4). At the time, it seemed like a smart deal for the Yankees, who were acquiring a formidable right-hander who had been an All-Star in 2015. The Reds are reportedly also landing left-hander Reiver Sanmartin in the deal. All salaries can grow based on numerous escalators. Since Sonny was a one time cy young candidate and still had good splits away from New York I’ll take him all day and jump to joy at the price they got him for, Fangraphs surplus $$$ are a bunch of crap IMO. In the AFL he was 100 points lower. Gray, Wood, Roark and Luis Castillo likely have their spots cemented for next year, while Anthony DeSclafani, Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano and others could compete for the final spot in the rotation. For this franchise, that’s a trifecta. No matter what Long does. 2020 Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospect List, he thinks he could be a future match up reliever, Reds land Nick Senzel, Jonathan India on top prospect list, Four Reds make the Baseball Prospects Top 101 Prospect List. But read Shed’s write up at FG, and you see that they are losing faith in his ability to play 2nd and admit that a corner spot does not work for his offensive profile. In 5 year period Arroyo averaged a WAR of 3.3. The Reds acquired right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray in a trade with the Yankees and signed Gray to a 3-year contract extension. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-33-prospects-cincinnati-reds/, I understand what you’re saying about Fangraphs casting a wide net on valuing 50-grade prospects (and I agree), but I think the $ values from this valuation system Doug is referring to uses Baseball Americas ratings. Immediately after the Reds trade was completed, the Yankees flipped Long in another trade to the Seattle Mariners. Behind them, will be, among others, Domingo German, Luis Cessa and Jonathan Loaisiga. Sure we could have given up less but we can’t get ANY pitchers to sign in our ballpark! India is one of the highest ratings so his surplus value is actually closer to $37 million. He’s been in the Major Leagues ever since. I have no doubt that Johnson has done more than his share of analysis and the Reds would not have extended Gray had they not felt a consistent 3+ WAR was in the cards. The New York Yankees have seemed likely to trade right-handed starter Sonny Gray dating back to the end of last season. 1 starter, More: Reactions: Cincinnati Reds acquire Sonny Gray from New York Yankees. And Shed’s AA results doesn’t even take into account the fact that Scooter has DONE IT in MLB. Other veterans the Reds have acquired this winter include the pitchers Tanner Roark and Alex Wood and the outfielders Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig. Way better than Latos trade! A case can be made for Castillo, Disco, and Gray with the other two not far behind. What we know about the Bengals game, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy.

The official trade brought Sonny Gray and left-handed pitching prospect Reiver Sanmartin to Cincinnati. However, Gray was removed from the rotation during the 2018 season. The change of scenery could benefit Gray, who is 29. Then again, the Reds’ stadium, the Great American Ball Park, is a band box, which actually factored into the Reds’ thinking in signing Gray to an extension. Since Greene and Long have the same 50 FV, and therefore the same $28 Million surplus value, it would not change Doug Gray’s financial analysis in this article if the Reds had traded Greene instead of Long. To me, a 50 grade should either be a player you are certain will be close to average in the bigs, or have a high ceiling and far from the majors. The Reds are hoping Gray can return to his old, above-average self. Sonny Douglas Gray (born November 7, 1989) is an American professional baseball pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds of Major League Baseball (MLB). But if he’s taking the mound every five days for the majority of his contract, the odds seem good that this deal is going to look fine for the Reds.

Since then he’s posted ERA’s of 2.35, 2.45, and 2.81. Three years, $30.5M, covering 2020-22. Heck, the reliever we got may not be that far off that value, maybe half as good at least. Whether one particular 50 FV player is more likely to be better than another has no effect on the average. Gray had success with the Oakland A’s before he was traded to the Yankees in 2017. Gray is scheduled to start tonight’s game against the … Please be polite. Find where you think Long would be on the chart and there you’ll find his value. Great write up. Long is an excellent hitter, fair defender. NEW YORK -- Sonny Gray is receiving the change of scenery he coveted, shipped to the Reds on Monday afternoon as part of a three-way trade that resulted in the Yankees' acquisition of outfield prospect Josh Stowers from the Mariners.Thirteen weeks after general manager Brian Cashman candidly said he was The Reds acquired the right-handed Gray after the 29-year-old pitcher agreed to a three-year contract extension that will keep him under contract through the 2022 season. Cotham was forced to retire due to injury but had pitched multiple years in major league bullpens. The Reds certainly get a stiffy on any all glove, no bat SS’s from Cuba that will never reach the Major Leagues. As a condition for the trade, Gray also agreed to a contract extension with the Reds for three seasons, with a fourth year as an option year. Thankfully, we’ll never know. I’d suggest reading the article, if you haven’t already. I think you are talking more about median than average.

So they weighted them based on the players ranking in the top 131.

Doug references not having pitched xxx innings since whatever year. Who knows? Gray should be good SP for Reds the next few years.

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