A year ago, though, the takes were more measured, both locally and nationally. On Wednesday, the Pirates announced that Archer will miss the 2020 season (if there is one) after undergoing surgery to "relieve symptoms of neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome." Plug in the Archer trade today, with the players appraised in the revealing light of 2019, and the site says the Rays’ side of the deal is worth almost five times as much as the Pirates’ side.

Baz may never develop into a great MLB player. Chris Archer is out for the 2020 season.

BaseballTradeValues.com founder and editor John Bitzer says he’s used real trades to help fine-tune the statistical model his site employs. I’m not a contact, ground ball pitcher,” adding, “I probably tried to change too much.”. Team-wide wins and losses steered the discourse, too: The Pirates went 10-17 in August, while the Rays went 17-10. With minutes to spare before the deadline on July 31, 2018, the Rays sent then-29-year-old homegrown starter Chris Archer to Pittsburgh for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and a player to be named later, who turned out to be Shane Baz. That last lesson of the Archer trade is that transactions aren’t about shuffling players with predetermined career paths from place to place. The Pirates moved Glasnow to the bullpen this season with better results. I can't wait to get there.". Likely, they will not pick up that option, ending Archer's time with the team.

Chris Archer, Pirates:5 GS, 22.1 IP, 6.04 ERA, 4.68 FIPTyler Glasnow, Rays:5 GS, 23.2 IP, 3.80 ERA, 3.24 FIP. When the Pirates responded with a 15-4 surge that seemed to validate his optimism, he sent a message at the non-waiver trade deadline. While Archer's futility alone would not be enough to put this amongst the worst trades ever (Babe Ruth to the Yankees and Randy Johnson to the Mariners come to mind), if Glasnow, Meadows, or Baz have amazing careers, or if two out of three have solid careers, or if they all help the Rays win a title, it will fall under that category. By choosing I Accept, you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies.

Plus: Houston Hangs on to Avoid a Sweep. Archer, the two-time All-Star with an escalating salary, a slowing fastball, and a shoulder odometer that recently ticked past 20,000 pitches, has amassed 0.8 Baseball-Reference WAR in 29 starts with the Pirates. "To get Keone with two-plus years of potential contribution and who knows behind that, to get Chris Archer with three years plus this year where he's going to impact our wins, those were really good gets in our mind," Huntington said. The Pirates are intent on winning, not just in 2018 but beyond. “The well-run teams are realistic and have a good feel for their talent and how it stacks up to their competitors,” an unnamed executive told Ken Rosenthal this week. Although Glasnow’s UCL is said to be intact, he may not be back this season. In this era of increasing information symmetry, “Makes sense for both teams” is the most frequent refrain in trade reactions. In the past year, ZiPS has upgraded its evaluation of Glasnow and Meadows by 12.3 WAR while downgrading its read on Archer by 6.2 WAR—and that’s the case even though the system still incorporates the trio’s pre-trade performance. Compare that to the avalanche of quotes condemning the Diamondbacks’ end of the Miller trade, which ranged from Sullivan’s “clear, obvious mistake” to an anonymous executive’s “worst trade I’ve ever seen.”.

The 24-year-old Glasnow dominated as a starter in the minors but struggled during his first season-plus in Pittsburgh, going 2-7 with a 7.69 ERA in 15 games (13 starts) in 2017. Plus, Van and Rachel discuss Joe Biden’s and Donald Trump’s dueling town halls. At the time, it would have been almost impossible to pry them loose. Please also read our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use, which became effective December 20, 2019. They gave up their top two guys, guys with some really good upside. Worse than the numbers for both Archer and the team, however, is the players Pittsburgh gave up for his services. Happ, Francisco Liriano, and Edinson Vólquez.

Having raised their stock significantly since the trade, they’d be similarly untouchable in 2019. In January 2014, writer Sam Miller mocked the stat-savvy fan’s tendency to reflexively favor the Rays’ end of deals, tweeting, “LOVE this trade for the Rays. The scions of the sports analytics movement undoubtedly transformed their professions. Entering 2017, Glasnow and Meadows were both top-10 prospects in baseball, according to MLB.com, ranking ninth and 10th, respectively on that site’s preseason list.

"I'm excited," Archer said following a round of hugs in the Tampa Bay clubhouse shortly after the deal was announced. Just over three weeks removed from being a season-worst eight games under .500 (40-48), the Pirates are one of them. The Chris Archer Trade Could Go Down As One of the Worst in MLB History. Today, Pittsburgh media members are calling the trade a fireable offense and a “complete disaster and absolute failure,” and Yinzer Brian Cuban—brother of Mark Cuban, who says he isn’t interested in buying his hometown team—is predicting that the trade will go down as one of the worst of all time. Even that trade, though, was the product of a different period, one when there were still suckers on the market—or, at least, executives who evaluated players in a dramatically different way than some of their counterparts, which paved the way for WTF trades. Many more will have no discernible impact on either the current season or future seasons. How Should the Best Franchises Balance Analytics With Old-School Wisdom? Meadows had batted .214 in his first exposure to Triple-A in 2016 (albeit with good power), but his OPS had declined in his second crack at the level in 2017, to a worrisome .670.

Will Smith homering off Will Smith, Dodgers' Taylor (ankle) out of Game 6 lineup, Astros rekindle memories of '04 Red Sox in ALCS, 'Dangerous' Seager hits 2 HRs, L.A. stays alive, Braves' Minter K's 7 in 3 innings in starting debut, Ex-Angels employee indicted in Skaggs' OD death, MLB players extend COVID-free streak to 47 days, MLB Playoffs Daily: Can Braves eliminate Dodgers, plus climactic Astros-Rays Game 7, Could the 2020 Astros join the 2004 Red Sox on Saturday? Ten NL teams entered play Tuesday within 5.5 games of a postseason berth. While the two pitchers were tracing contrasting trajectories, Meadows hit .344/.396/.771 (223 wRC+) with 10 homers in 96 at-bats in Triple-A in August. The Mets could command an Archer-trade windfall for Noah Syndergaard.

Here’s why we probably won’t see any similar deals before Wednesday’s deadline. So when we see former top prospects today who are struggling a bit (e.g., Franklin Barreto), we may dock their value, but we also know not to dock their value too much.”.

As we wait to see which transactions are consummated before today’s 4 p.m. During his tenure, the Rockets GM did everything but win a title while dealing with ownership that wouldn’t authorize championship-level spending.

Since then, Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole have blossomed in Houston—according to Cole, he had been “pulling out the wrong tools” because no one in Pittsburgh had told him to trust his breaking ball over his sinker—and now Archer has hit a wall while acclimating to the Pirates’ seemingly simplistic, one-size-fits-all strategy. MLB’s July 31 trade deadline is the culmination of a weeks-long midseason stretch when we revel in the thrill of knowing next to nothing. One reason the Rays’ heist has already attained such legendary regard is that we rarely see teams make moves that seem inexplicable. The Pirates are on the hook for Archer this season but have a club option for the 2021 season. Although we won’t be able to evaluate the trade in full for years, it’s a real rout thus far. Pittsburgh heads to the stretch with an improved rotation and a back end of the bullpen that suddenly looks formidable, with Kela joining All-Star closer Felipe Vazquez and setup man Kyle Crick. The Diamondbacks’ December 2015 decision to send first overall pick Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte, and Aaron Blair to Atlanta for Miller and minor leaguer Gabe Speier flummoxed fans and analysts the moment it was made, and the results more than justify that contemporary consternation. We're trying to win games.

Even after his club found itself floundering in early July. So far, that trade has backfired in every conceivable way and is now in position to be added to the list of worst trades in MLB history. After committing to one course, the Pirates allowed a small-sample performance to talk them into another. Glasnow could be a one-hit wonder. Some moves will facilitate playoff appearances and championships thanks to timely injections of veteran talent.

The Blue Jays allegedly envisioned an Archer-trade return for Marcus Stroman. ET deadline, we can trust in only one truth: Whatever trade your team makes, it probably won’t look as good, one year later, as the Rays’ return in the Chris Archer trade looks today. Content ©2020 The Ringer All Rights Reserved, What We Learned From the Colossally Lopsided Chris Archer Trade, Daryl Morey Found a Way to Succeed With One Hand Tied Behind His Back, From ‘A Few Good Men’ to ‘The West Wing’ to ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7,’ let’s see how all of the renowned screenwriter’s work stacks up against itself, Daryl Morey and Billy Beane Won by Capturing Our Imaginations, ‘Lovecraft Country’ Has a Huge Storytelling Problem. It's too early to say that will happen right now. The 23-year-old Hearn was acquired from Washington at the trade deadline two years ago. Glasnow, a starting pitcher, got off to a hot start last year, going 5-0 with a 1.75 ERA before a arm strain sidelined him much of the year.

The decision to deal three players considered part of the club's next wave wasn't easy. The Archer trade, he notes via email, “has proved instrumental as a reference point for valuing tweeners—guys who may have officially graduated from prospect status, and so no longer are being rated as prospects by the major services and therefore falling into a bit of a gray area—but more importantly as a bulwark case against devaluing stock-fallers too much. And who’d they get?” The Rays’ reputation for swindling teams in trades was built on the back of long-ago transactions like the Delmon Young deal and the swap with the Cubs that brought Archer to Tampa Bay, but the trade that shipped Archer out has already taken its place in the pantheon. Buoyed by a 15-4 streak, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington traded prospects Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and a player to be named for Tampa Bay starting pitcher Chris Archer, a … Unfortunately, They Still Don’t Have a Plan. The implication was that only incompetents could fail to see the wisdom of a windfall like that. Meadows could be injury-prone. A quick Google search reveals the following about that injury: During his time with the Pirates so far, Archer has made 33 starts and gone 6-12 with a 4.92 ERA, giving up 85 earned runs in 172 innings. Although the Rays overwhelmingly won Year 1 of the Archer trade—the year that, in theory, should be most likely to favor the buyer in a present-for-future transaction—fewer jaws dropped when this move was made than had after the Miller trade. In Pittsburgh, Archer went away from his strengths, throwing more sinkers and fewer sliders in an apparent attempt to conform to the plan espoused by pitching coach Ray Searage: copious sinkers, ample pitching inside, and regular ground balls. Right now, the Chris Archer deal that highlighted the Pirates 2018 trade deadline and probably that entire season looks to be a bust. The beloved Showtime series with a much-loathed finale will return for a limited run in 2021. The 25-year-old Kela has 24 saves and a 3.44 ERA. "From the first time I met him (Chris Archer), I could tell …

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