by Retrosheet. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Depending on one’s point of view, that’s either a good thing or a bad thing; he has several more years to go before he reaches his presumable prime, or, considering the taste he’s already given fantasy owners, he may have several more all-star-quality seasons in him before he really begins to make good on his potential. It amazes me how underutilized splits are. This was one of the areas Machado seemingly got lucky in as he hit pop-ups at the eighth highest rate among all qualified hitters. Machado posted the highest BABIP among all qualified hitters with at least a 15% IFFB%. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous. He’s hardly the sole reason the Padres, who lost 96 games last year, are 42-42, but he’s already nearly doubled the 1.3 WAR of the 2018 squad’s third basemen (primarily Christian Villanueva, with Wil Myers and Cory Spangenberg seeing significant time there as well), which is to say that he’s been a significant part of the team’s improvement, if not its sole driver. Towards the end of the month, however, he fell into a 4-for-40 slump, his worst stretch of the season. His 88 wRC+ for the period was the first time he left the gate with a below-average month; last year, he sizzled at a 157 wRC+ clip (.361/.448/.676) in March and April. Of that group, the unweighted average BABIP was just .286 (Machado posted a .322 mark).

Off the bat, it’s worth remembering that this hasn’t been a typical season for Machado. by Handedness, Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance. That said, given that he’s on close to a 5-WAR pace through his first half season in San Diego, it would be disingenuous and a tad ridiculous to argue that Machado has been a bust, or pretend that he couldn’t have helped most of the other clubs who shunned him in free agency. In Machado’s last 4 games, all at home he is .188/.176/.750. He has a pretty extreme home/road split. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. The line drive rate is a bit higher due to the fluky low 13.9% mark he posted in 2012 that is dragging down his average.

All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Of course, even when he does return, you never know if he will have additional health problems during the season related to the knee. We hoped you liked reading Manny Machado, Marked Down?

by Handedness, an embarrassingly disproportionate response. Updated: Saturday, October 17, 2020 10:52 AM ET, Park Factors

He’s pulling the ball a bit less often (35.4% versus last year’s 38.1%), but his pulled fly-ball rate has barely budged. He hit just .236/.325/.368 in March and April, and as recently as June 12 was slugging less than .400. Furthermore, he posted sub-.300 BABIP marks at every minor league stop (excluding his small sample stint at Low-A in 2010).

It’s a smidgen worse than the 15.9% mark he posted last season, but a sustaining of the improvement he made from his 2012 debut.

Manny Machado (ESPN: 0 percent owned; Yahoo! If it doesn’t seem all that long ago that Manny Machado was the darling of prospect hounds and fantasy dreamers, well, that’s because it hasn’t been; the 2010 first round draft pick made his debut just two seasons ago, broke out as an all-star last year and was barely drinking age on opening day back in April. He struck out in 25% of his 120 plate appearances in March and April, a figure more than 10 points higher than last year’s 14.7%, and more than eight points above his career 16.4% mark.

Manny Machado SDP SS/3B R Born: 07/06/1992 (Age: 28) FanGraphs Player Page Signed By Poor Little Rabbits for $30 Positions SS/3B 2021 Projected Positions 3B/SS Avg Salary All … Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email. That carried into June; through the games of June 12, his line stood at .240/.329/.397 with 10 home runs and a 93 wRC+, placing him in the 25th percentile among all MLB qualifiers. I wouldn’t call him a bust, but not sure he is fine either. by Handedness. At a likely discount, however, it’s not too early for savvy owners to already mark him down as a top target come March.

He spent five weeks manning shortstop in the absence of the injured Fernando Tatis Jr., where the small-sample metrics say he was slightly below average, but now back at the hot corner, he’s been above average. Power is typically the last tool to fully develop and I see his league leading 51 doubles in 2013 turning into at least 25-30 home run power over the next year or two so long as he can remain relatively healthy.

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. The Orioles lineup could look a bit different this year with question marks at the bottom of the lineup given their second base and left field battles. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats. What we can say is that Machado reported having full range of motion in his right knee earlier this month, and, for what it’s worth, was able to play every day after returning from his left knee injury, which was more severe than August’s breakdown. His average fly ball distance of 335 feet is 17 feet further than in 2018, and represents an improvement of 13 feet relative to the league averages (319 feet last year, 323 feet this year). Comparing his season numbers as a whole to last season, the biggest change for Machado — besides his uniform and home ballpark — has been his rising strikeout rate (20.6%, nearly six full points higher than last year) and swinging strike rate (11.3%, up 1.7 points from last year and his highest mark since his 2012 rookie season). Monthly splits can tell you a lot. Unfortunately, his season ended with a serious knee injury that required surgery. Machado was much better in May (.283/.365/.485, 120 wRC+), and he even cut his strikeout rate to a much more normal 16.5%. Website admin will know that you reported it. Today’s Pod Projection is the Orioles young third sacker, Manny Machado. But if we split up Machado’s season just a little bit — in this case, removing his terrible first month back, which we’ll blame on him being cold and coming off major surgery — we see that he did, in fact, put together a prolonged period of positive production: In May, Machado was simply overpowered by major league fastballs, producing a puny .059 ISO against them. Thats cool, I am not a huge fan of it either, but its not worthless. As for when he makes contact, Machado’s ground-ball and fly-ball rates haven’t changed appreciably (39.0% and 43.2% this year), though he’s popping up a fair bit more often (16.2% IFFB compared to last year’s 11.6%). Last season, Machado recorded 710 plate appearances, which tied for the seventh highest total in baseball. If we are talking about Manny up until this point in time, pointing out that he has been garbage in his home park and that his recent success is entirely fueled by playing road games is relevant to the subject.

Since June 13, Machado has been nearly unstoppable, batting .400/.427/.914 in 75 PA through July 1.

Manny Machado SDP SS/3B R Born: 07/06/1992 (Age: 28) FanGraphs Player Page Signed By Simply the Bets for $33 Positions SS/3B 2021 Projected Positions … Machado’s NFBC ADP is 113th overall, yet my projected line valued him as just the 203rd most valuable player in a similar 15-team league format. His 20 homers are tied for 10th in the NL, and he is on pace to surpass last year’s career-high of 37.

So he will probably always be a guy that is more valuable in real life than he is in fantasy. You can flag a comment by clicking its flag icon. He’s prone to chasing them, and his swinging strike rate against them has risen significantly. This distribution is essentially his career average that includes his 2012. I am projecting a better success rate this season, but given his recovery from knee surgery, assume he will run a bit less frequently. by Karl de Vries! Only thing I see that gets me excited as a fantasy owner is the power potential here.

As a result, he may not be ready for opening day and the uncertainty is reducing his draft cost. That gives ammunition to his critics, but as a perpetually polarizing player, he’ll never satisfy all of them. But his recovery from surgery now clouds his outlook and it’s anyone’s guess when exactly he’s healthy enough to be in the lineup. and actions (clipping Jesus Aguilar’s heel at first base, plus a few questionable slides) served to heighten the pressure on him to deliver from the outset of his Padres career. This included the 4 crazy games in Colorado where Manny hit .526/.550/1.105 for a 324 wRC+. Machado is still amid controversy, awaiting word on his one-game suspension stemming from a June 15 ejection in Colorado after which he threw his helmet and other equipment, and may or may not have made contact with home plate umpire Bill Welke. Manny Machado SDP SS/3B R Born: 07/06/1992 (Age: 28) FanGraphs Player Page Signed By Shifting Launch Angles for $35 Positions SS/3B 2021 Projected Positions 3B/SS Avg … Below is my final projected fantasy batting line, along with the other systems for comparison. Statcast-wise, Machado’s hot streak has brought his numbers in line with his recent history. Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. You can flag a comment by clicking its flag icon. as distributed by STATS. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. Whether it’s because of his recent controversies or his tepid early-season performance, Machado didn’t come close to making the cut for the final All-Star voting; as of June 17, he was sixth among NL third basemen, with less than half the vote total of the top four (eventual finalists Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Josh Donaldson plus Justin Turner) and just over half that of fifth-place Anthony Rendon. He has gotten bigger and stronger over the past 2 years and his home run rate has improved significantly from 2013 to 2014 in the few games he played. Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. The stats all count the same. It’s worth digging into his pitch splits (via Pitch Info): Machado is seeing far more four-seam fastballs than last year, and he’s flat-out destroying them, but while not only rarely chasing but also laying off an even greater share of those in the strike zone; his swinging strike rate against the heater has remained constant. and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions. His rolling averages over his last 50 batted balls are generally better than at the start of the year, so I don’t think that there’s much to suggest this is anything but typical variance. Sure, but he is awful at home and part of his recent success is fueled by a bonkers road trip to Colorado.

You mention his bonkers Colorado series, yet fail to mention the very next series at home where he a great 3 game series with 6 hits, including 2 doubles and a homer over 13 PA. wRC+ in the 7 home games since teeing off in Colorado: 406, 231, 117, -100, 397, 144, -100. However, his xHR/FB rate was a much better 12.6%, as he pulled the ball frequently and tended to mix in shorter fly balls with longer bombs, which lead to more homers than if he had consistently been average. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous. by Retrosheet. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. why bother bringing up home/road splits?

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